Charizard (Shadowless Holographic)
Base1 Shadowless · #4 · PSA Regular tier
Per-grade probability layout pending verified data. Current grade probabilities are seeded — until they're sourced from a real pop report (GemRate / PSA Public API), we don't ship them. For per-scenario math (sell raw / grade & sell N9 / grade & sell N10) on this card, see the optimizer page.
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Pop velocity
Analysis
Charizard (Shadowless Holographic) sits in Base1 Shadowless. Raw spot is $1,200 per the most recent PriceCharting loose comp, last refreshed May 7, 2026.
I'm scoring this a 73/100 — PLAY. The math: $2,034 expected value at PSA Regular tier, less raw cost $1,200, less $25 grading fee, less $12 return shipping, less $270 eBay fee = +$527 net per copy. ROI works out to 44% on the raw cost basis.
PSA Regular tier turnaround runs about 65 days. Annualized for capital velocity, that's roughly +247% APR — useful framing if you're thinking about this as a capital allocation, not a one-shot trade.
Pop velocity is muted (1.0% in 30d), which I read as a positive signal — the gem-rate denominator isn't ballooning, so existing PSA 10 comps should hold.
Sourcing raw: high-end card. Don't buy without seeing high-resolution scans of every edge and the surface. Comp $1,200 is your ceiling — bid below it to leave room for grading risk. Auction houses (PWCC, Goldin) sell raw copies of cards in this range with provenance.
Risk to size: grading is one-way. Grading fees aren't refundable, the round-trip eats 65 days of capital, and the comp data lags real-time market shifts. Numbers above pull from PSA POP Report, recent eBay sold listings, and PriceCharting comps as of 2026-05-04.
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